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Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility: A test using indian microdata

  • Vincenzo Atella


    (Department of Economics, University of Rome II - Tor Vergata, Via oli Tor Vergata snc, 00133 Roma, Italy)

  • Furio Camillo Rosati


    (Department of Economics, University of Rome II - Tor Vergata, Via oli Tor Vergata snc, 00133 Roma, Italy)

In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children's death is not the only link between fertility decision and children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 263-278

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:13:y:2000:i:2:p:263-278
Note: Received: 20 August 1998/Accepted: 19 July 1999
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