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Infectious diseases, social distancing compliance, and social interactions

Author

Listed:
  • Simone Marsiglio

    (University of Pisa, Department of Economics and Management)

  • Tatyana Perevalova

    (University of Pisa, Department of Economics and Management
    University of Agder, School of Business and Law)

Abstract

We analyze the role of social interactions in driving the effectiveness of social distancing to mitigate the economic consequences of infectious diseases. Individuals choose whether to comply with social distancing measures by accounting for health and social considerations, determining the dynamic evolution of disease prevalence. We show that the feedback effects between health and social conditions imply that the economy may converge to a disease-free or endemic situation, giving rise to a variety of alternative scenarios, in which unique or multiple stable equilibria exist, monotonic or non-monotonic trajectories occur, cyclical behavior or path-dependency arise. Moreover, by extending the analysis to a stochastic setup to account for the role of uncertainty, we show that the predictions of a deterministic analysis may not be enough to perform robust policy analysis, as the stochastic outcome may largely differ from the deterministic one.

Suggested Citation

  • Simone Marsiglio & Tatyana Perevalova, 2026. "Infectious diseases, social distancing compliance, and social interactions," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 1-30, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:36:y:2026:i:2:d:10.1007_s00191-026-00965-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-026-00965-6
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    JEL classification:

    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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