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When Low Interest Rates Cause Low Inflation

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  • Markus Demary
  • Michael Hüther

Abstract

A new theory of interest rates, the Neo-Fisherian theory, predicts a low inflation rate due to a central bank’s low interest rate. After several years of near-zero interest rate policies and low and even negative inflation rates in the eurozone and in the US, this theory gained momentum in academic circles. Indeed, central banks have had a hard time reaching their inflation targets. This paper argues that it is not the low central bank policy rate which causes low inflation but rather the low equilibrium real interest rate, the economy’s real interest rate under full employment and stable prices, in combination with the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, which restricts the effectiveness of monetary policy and causes low inflation. In order to stabilise inflation in the medium term, higher equilibrium real interest rates are necessary. Since monetary policy cannot move the equilibrium real interest rate, structural policies are needed. Copyright ZBW and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Demary & Michael Hüther, 2015. "When Low Interest Rates Cause Low Inflation," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 50(6), pages 350-355, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:intere:v:50:y:2015:i:6:p:350-355
    DOI: 10.1007/s10272-015-0559-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Demary, Markus & Niehues, Judith & Stockhausen, Maximilian & Zdrzalek, Jonas, 2021. "Der Einfluss der EZB-Geldpolitik auf die Vermögensverteilung in Deutschland," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 250019.
    2. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Marcel Fratzscher & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Claus Michelsen & Michael Hüther & Peter Bofinger & Lars P. Feld & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Schuldenbremse — Investitionshemmnis oder Vorbild für Europa? [Debt Brake — Investment Barrier or Role Model for Europe?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(5), pages 307-329, May.
    3. Hüther, Michael, 2019. "10 Jahre Schuldenbremse: Ein Konzept mit Zukunft?," IW policy papers 3/2019, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
    4. Ghozali Maski & An'im Kafabih & Arif Hoetoro, 2018. "Testing Profit and Loss Sharing to Stabilise Level of Inflation: Evidence From Indonesia," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 12-23, June.

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