The quality of educational services in regional schools of Kazakhstan and its impact on human development: the role of budgetary financing

This study examines regional differences in the efficiency of public secondary education spending in Kazakhstan and explores how budgetary financing relates to education quality and human development. The analysis responds to the limited empirical evidence on subnational efficiency and spatial interdependencies in education systems characterized by high territorial diversity. The study applies a quantitative research design combining Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with variable returns to scale and spatial econometric techniques. Regions are treated as decision-making units to estimate the relative efficiency of budget utilization in secondary education. Spatial dependence is examined using the Spatial Durbin Model and global and local Moran’s I statistics. The analysis relies on official regional statistics for the period 2020–2024 and survey data collected from 5000 respondents across all regions of Kazakhstan. The results reveal substantial regional variation in the efficiency of public education spending. Several regions display significant input and output slacks, indicating untapped potential for improving outcomes without increasing resources. Bootstrap-corrected DEA estimates show that formal efficiency scores often mask latent inefficiencies. Spatial regression results do not identify statistically significant short-term associations between funding levels, education quality, and human development. However, spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals strong clustering in human development indicators, while education quality perceptions exhibit weaker spatial patterns. The findings indicate that increased funding alone does not guarantee higher efficiency or improved human development outcomes. The study highlights the importance of effective resource allocation and management at the regional level.