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Improving software reliability: a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM approach for fault prediction

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  • Umashankar Samal

    (Atal Bihari Vajpayee Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management
    GLA University)

  • Ajay Kumar

    (Atal Bihari Vajpayee Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management)

Abstract

Accurate prediction of software faults is essential for effective maintenance and improving overall reliability. This study presents a hybrid model that integrates autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to enhance fault prediction accuracy. The ARIMA part effectively identifies linear patterns and trends in time series data, while the LSTM component captures complex nonlinear relationships and dependencies. Evaluation on three real-world datasets from open-source software projects shows that the hybrid approach outperforms both standalone ARIMA and LSTM models. The advantages of this model include enhanced decision-making capabilities, minimized downtime, and improved user satisfaction. This research provides a significant contribution to the field of software reliability forecasting, offering practitioners a robust tool for ensuring software dependability and enabling proactive strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Umashankar Samal & Ajay Kumar, 2025. "Improving software reliability: a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM approach for fault prediction," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 16(5), pages 1757-1769, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ijsaem:v:16:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1007_s13198-025-02743-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s13198-025-02743-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Chatterjee & S. Nigam & J.B. Singh & L.N. Upadhyaya, 2011. "Application of Fuzzy Time Series in Prediction of Time Between Failures & Faults in Software Reliability Assessment," Fuzzy Information and Engineering, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 293-309, September.
    2. Qiuying Li & Hoang Pham, 2017. "A testing-coverage software reliability model considering fault removal efficiency and error generation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(7), pages 1-25, July.
    3. Vibha Verma & Sameer Anand & P. K. Kapur & Anu G. Aggarwal, 2022. "Unified framework to assess software reliability and determine optimal release time in presence of fault reduction factor, error generation and fault removal efficiency," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(5), pages 2429-2441, October.
    4. S. Chatterjee & S. Nigam & J. B. Singh & L. N. Upadhyaya, 2011. "Application of fuzzy time series in prediction of time between failures & faults in software reliability assessment," Fuzzy Information and Engineering, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 293-309, September.
    5. Kamlesh Kumar Raghuvanshi & Arun Agarwal & Khushboo Jain & V. B. Singh, 2022. "A generalized prediction model for improving software reliability using time-series modelling," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 13(3), pages 1309-1320, June.
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