Does Industrial Robotics Impact Employment in Indian Manufacturing: Examining Labour Market Outcomes

India currently reports one of the lowest robot densities worldwide. Nevertheless, the country’s industrial robot stock is consistently increasing, although adoption rates vary across different industries. We analyse the impact of industrial robots on wage employment in manufacturing in India from 2017 to 2022, particularly focusing on the plant and machinery labour force. Our study utilises data from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR)and various Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) rounds to investigate employment dynamics based on application types, industries, and occupations. Among the occupational streams, robots directly impact plant and machine operators, especially in the automotive industry. The recent arc elasticity of employment to robots is negative for this occupational segment, implying that robots substitute specific segments of industrial labour. We examine two labour market outcomes: wage levels and formal employment. Using classification trees, we assess the influence of human capital and experience on wages and the implications for the substitution and complementarity of labour factors. Our findings reveal that the growth of industrial robots coexists with a stagnant low-skilled labour force while high-skilled labour expands, especially in larger firms. The development of the high human capital segment coexists with a visible drop in nominal and real wages and required experience. It indicates that in India, industrial robots tend to substitute routine labour, such as in material handling operations. However, further disruptions may affect the skilled workforce if the focus of robot manufacturing shifts from mechatronics to artificial intelligence-based technologies.