IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage


  • Paul Wolfson

    (Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H. USA 03755)

  • Dale Belman

    () (Michigan State University, School of Labor and Industrial Relations, 4th Floor, South Kedzie Hall, East Lansing, MI 48824-1032)


Out-of-sample employment forecasts for 33 U.S. industries which are likely to be sensitive to the federal minimum wage are, more often than not, more accurate when information about the minimum wage is not taken into account. This is true even in instances where this information improves wage forecasts. When employment forecasts conditional on the minimum wage are better, the improvement is typically small. These results are invariant to the number of workers previously making less than the new minimum wage, and to the value of the minimum wage relative to industry average wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Wolfson & Dale Belman, 2001. "The minimum wage, employment, and the AS-IF methodology: A forecasting approach to evaluating the minimum wage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 487-514.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:26:y:2001:i:3:p:487-514 Note: received: August 1999/Final version received: July 2000

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Tsangyao Chang & WenRong Liu & Steven Caudill, 2004. "A re-examination of Wagner's law for ten countries based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 577-589.
    2. Bharat Kolluri & Michael Panik & Mahmoud Wahab, 2000. "Government expenditure and economic growth: evidence from G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 1059-1068.
    3. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer S., 2003. "Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 567-583, September.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 1995. "An Examination of Wagner's Law for Greece: A Cointegration Analysis," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 50(1), pages 67-79.
    6. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    7. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    8. M. I. Ansari & D. V. Gordon & C. Akuamoah, 1997. "Keynes versus Wagner: public expenditure and national income for three African countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 543-550.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    10. Holmes, James M & Hutton, Patricia A, 1990. "On the Causal Relationship between Government Expenditures and National Income," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 87-95, February.
    11. Ahsan, Syed M & Kwan, Andy C C & Sahni, Balbir S, 1989. "Causality between Government Consumption Expenditure and National Income: OECD Countries," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 44(2), pages 204-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Minimum Wage; Wage; Forecast Accuracy Comparisons; Box-Jenkins Modeling; Intervention Analysis; Time Series Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:26:y:2001:i:3:p:487-514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.