IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v166y2021i3d10.1007_s10584-021-03134-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China

Author

Listed:
  • Hongming He

    (East China Normal University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences & Ministry of Water Resources, Northwest Agriculture and Forestry)

  • Claudio O. Delang

    (Hong Kong Baptist University)

  • Jie Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yu Li

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Wenming He

    (Jiaying University)

Abstract

This study identifies historical extreme events and analyzes their impacts on social vulnerability, stability, and resilience in ancient China. We reconstructed extreme event sequences, simulated social resilience response using our proposed Cascade Catastrophe-Resilience Dynamic Model, and discussed interaction of social vulnerability and stability. We found the following conclusions. First, historical extreme events had cyclic and periodic fluctuations, and usually led to cascade disasters. Cascade disasters enhanced risk and greatly reduced societal stability, while three types of disaster chains were observed: climatic extremes (flood/drought)-famines-wars (uprising/invasions)-epidemic plagues; climatic extremes (flood/drought)-famines -migrations; and droughts-locust plagues-famines. A climate extreme-earthquake chain was also recorded although the mechanism remains unknown. Second, extreme events were synchronous with dynastic changes, although strong social resilience enhanced the opportunity for dynastic survival and modified the stochastic magnitude–frequency relationship between extreme events and social vulnerability. The high frequency of extreme events is consistent with high hazard indices, declining population, high levels of social vulnerability, and low levels of social stability and resilience. However, the strong correlation between high levels of social vulnerability and high frequency of extreme events occurred at the end of dynasties but not when dynasties were thriving. Third, quick response to disasters, efficient disaster relief systems, and sufficient food supplies were essential parts of social resilience to disasters. Extreme events play important roles in shaping agricultural production, and thus food supply. Population fluctuation and migration, economic center shifts, and social and economic structure changes contributed to cascade disasters, which often led to societal instability throughout Chinese history.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongming He & Claudio O. Delang & Jie Zhou & Yu Li & Wenming He, 2021. "Simulation of social resilience affected by extreme events in ancient China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03134-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03134-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-021-03134-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-021-03134-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gergana Yancheva & Norbert R. Nowaczyk & Jens Mingram & Peter Dulski & Georg Schettler & Jörg F. W. Negendank & Jiaqi Liu & Daniel M. Sigman & Larry C. Peterson & Gerald H. Haug, 2007. "Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon," Nature, Nature, vol. 445(7123), pages 74-77, January.
    2. Jörn Birkmann, 2011. "First- and second-order adaptation to natural hazards and extreme events in the context of climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(2), pages 811-840, August.
    3. Cibele Oliveira Lima & Jarbas Bonetti, 2020. "Bibliometric analysis of the scientific production on coastal communities’ social vulnerability to climate change and to the impact of extreme events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(3), pages 1589-1610, July.
    4. Z. T. Guo & William F. Ruddiman & Q. Z. Hao & H. B. Wu & Y. S. Qiao & R. X. Zhu & S. Z. Peng & J. J. Wei & B. Y. Yuan & T. S. Liu, 2002. "Onset of Asian desertification by 22 Myr ago inferred from loess deposits in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6877), pages 159-163, March.
    5. Louise K. Comfort & Haibo Zhang, 2020. "Operational Networks: Adaptation to Extreme Events in China," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(5), pages 981-1000, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Ao & Eelco J. Rohling & Ran Zhang & Andrew P. Roberts & Ann E. Holbourn & Jean-Baptiste Ladant & Guillaume Dupont-Nivet & Wolfgang Kuhnt & Peng Zhang & Feng Wu & Mark J. Dekkers & Qingsong Liu & , 2021. "Global warming-induced Asian hydrological climate transition across the Miocene–Pliocene boundary," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Alexander D. Chapman & Stephen E. Darby & Hoàng M. Hồng & Emma L. Tompkins & Tri P. D. Van, 2016. "Adaptation and development trade-offs: fluvial sediment deposition and the sustainability of rice-cropping in An Giang Province, Mekong Delta," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 593-608, August.
    3. Lei Du & Yingbin Feng & Li Yaning Tang & Wei Kang & Wei Lu, 2020. "Networks in disaster emergency management: a systematic review," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1-27, August.
    4. Sonia Morán-Rodríguez & David A. Novelo-Casanova, 2018. "A methodology to estimate seismic vulnerability of health facilities. Case study: Mexico City, Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(3), pages 1349-1375, February.
    5. Liang Yi & Hongjun Yu & Junyi Ge & Zhongping Lai & Xingyong Xu & Li Qin & Shuzhen Peng, 2012. "Reconstructions of annual summer precipitation and temperature in north-central China since 1470 AD based on drought/flood index and tree-ring records," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 469-498, January.
    6. Zhengquan Yao & Xuefa Shi & Zhengtang Guo & Xinzhou Li & B. Nagender Nath & Christian Betzler & Hui Zhang & Sebastian Lindhorst & Pavan Miriyala, 2023. "Weakening of the South Asian summer monsoon linked to interhemispheric ice-sheet growth since 12 Ma," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Vyddiyaratnam Pathmanandakumar & Sheeba Nettukandy Chenoli & Hong Ching Goh, 2021. "Linkages between Climate Change and Coastal Tourism: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-21, September.
    8. Yi Lu & Chengyan Zhan & Rui Li & Min Su, 2021. "An NGO disaster relief network for small and medium-scale natural hazards in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2689-2709, April.
    9. Kristen M. Green & Jennifer C. Selgrath & Timothy H. Frawley & William K. Oestreich & Elizabeth J. Mansfield & Jose Urteaga & Shannon S. Swanson & Francisca N. Santana & Stephanie J. Green & Josheena , 2021. "How adaptive capacity shapes the Adapt, React, Cope response to climate impacts: insights from small-scale fisheries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Hanane Rhomad & Karima Khalil & Khalid Elkalay, 2023. "Water Quality Modeling in Atlantic Region: Review, Science Mapping and Future Research Directions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(1), pages 451-499, January.
    11. Wenping Xue & Heling Jin & Bing Liu & Liangying Sun & Zhenyu Liu, 2019. "The Possible Stimulation of the Mid-Holocene Period’s Initial Hydrological Recession on the Development of Neolithic Cultures along the Margin of the East Asian Summer Monsoon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-27, November.
    12. Ruby W. Grantham & Murray A. Rudd, 2017. "Household susceptibility to hydrological change in the Lower Mekong Basin," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 3-17, February.
    13. Shome, Samik & Hassan, M. Kabir & Verma, Sushma & Panigrahi, Tushar Ranjan, 2023. "Impact investment for sustainable development: A bibliometric analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 770-800.
    14. Karine Bastos Leal & Luís Eduardo de Souza Robaina & André de Souza De Lima, 2022. "Coastal impacts of storm surges on a changing climate: a global bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1455-1476, November.
    15. Niranjan Padhan & S Madheswaran, 2023. "An integrated assessment of vulnerability to floods in coastal Odisha: a district-level analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2351-2382, February.
    16. Aipeng Guo & Longjiang Mao & Siwei Shan & Xingguo Zhang & Duowen Mo, 2022. "Hydrological Regime, Provenance, and Impacts on Cultural Development at Changsha Kiln Archaeological Site since 1300 a, Lower Xiangjiang River, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Jingyun Zheng & Lingbo Xiao & Xiuqi Fang & Zhixin Hao & Quansheng Ge & Beibei Li, 2014. "How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 169-182, November.
    18. Feng Chen & Hadad Martín & Xiaoen Zhao & Fidel Roig & Heli Zhang & Shijie Wang & Weipeng Yue & Youping Chen, 2022. "Abnormally low precipitation-induced ecological imbalance contributed to the fall of the Ming Dynasty: new evidence from tree rings," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-16, July.
    19. Xueling Bao & Fengwan Zhang & Xin Deng & Dingde Xu, 2021. "Can Trust Motivate Farmers to Purchase Natural Disaster Insurance? Evidence from Earthquake-Stricken Areas of Sichuan, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, August.
    20. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," Working Papers 2016.27, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:166:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03134-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.