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Projection of winter NPO-following winter ENSO connection in a warming climate: uncertainty due to internal climate variability

Author

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  • Shangfeng Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Bin Yu

    (Environment and Climate Change Canada)

Abstract

Previous observational and modeling studies indicate that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) could significantly impact the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM). This study explores climate projections of this winter NPO-ENSO relation in a warming climate based on a 50-member large ensemble of climate simulations conducted with the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The ensemble mean of the 50 members can well reproduce the observed winter NPO pattern, the NPO-ENSO relationship, and the SFM process over the historical period 1950–2003. These 50 members are then employed to examine climate projections of the NPO-ENSO connection over the anthropogenic forced period 2020–2073. Results indicate that there exists a large spread of projected NPO-ENSO connections across these 50 ensemble members due to internal climate variability. Internal climate variability brings uncertainties in the projection of the winter NPO-ENSO connection originally seen in projected changes of the subtropical center of the winter NPO. The spread of projections of winter NPO-associated atmospheric anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific further results in various responses in the projections of winter and spring precipitation anomalies over the tropical North Pacific, as well as spring zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, which eventually lead to uncertainties in the projection of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific from the following summer to winter.

Suggested Citation

  • Shangfeng Chen & Bin Yu, 2020. "Projection of winter NPO-following winter ENSO connection in a warming climate: uncertainty due to internal climate variability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 723-740, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02778-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02778-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Sigmond & John C. Fyfe, 2016. "Tropical Pacific impacts on cooling North American winters," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 970-974, October.
    2. Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse & Marco Braun, 2019. "Impact of internal variability on climate change for the upcoming decades: analysis of the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE large ensembles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 299-314, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pécastaing, Nicolas & Salavarriga, Juan, 2022. "The potential impact of fishing in peruvian marine protected areas (MPAs) on artisanal fishery poverty during El Niño events," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    2. Bin Yu & Xuebin Zhang & Guilong Li & Wei Yu, 2022. "Interhemispheric asymmetry of climate change projections of boreal winter surface winds in CanESM5 large ensemble simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-20, February.

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