IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v141y2017i4d10.1007_s10584-017-1915-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change effects on Antarctic benthos: a spatially explicit model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Luciana Torre

    (Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (CONICET-UNC), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales,.)

  • Paulo C. Carmona Tabares

    (Universidad del Quindío)

  • Fernando Momo

    (Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento
    Universidad Nacional de Luján - CONICET)

  • João F. C. A. Meyer

    (UNICAMP)

  • Ricardo Sahade

    (Instituto de Diversidad y Ecología Animal (CONICET-UNC), Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales,.)

Abstract

The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the regions on the Earth with the clearest evidence of recent and fast air warming. This air temperature rise has caused massive glacier retreat leading to an increased influx of glacier meltwater which entails hydrological changes in coastal waters, increasing sediment input and ice-scouring impact regime. It has been hypothesized that an increase of sediment load due to glacier retreat resulted in a remarkable benthic community shift in Potter Cove, a small inlet of the South Shetland Islands. In order to test this hypothesis, we developed an explicit spatial model to explore the link between sedimentation and ice-scouring increase upon four of the most conspicuous benthic species. This is a valuable novel approach since disturbances are strongly dependent of the space. The model takes into account sediment and population dynamics with Lotka-Volterra competition, a sediment-dependent mortality term and a randomized ice-scouring biomass removal. With the developed algorithm, and using a MATLAB environment, numerical simulations for scenarios with different sedimentation and ice-impact rates were undertaken in order to evaluate the effect of this phenomenon on biological dynamics. Comparing simulation results with biological data, the model not only recreates the spatial community distribution pattern but also seems to be able to recreate the shifts in abundance under sedimentation enhancement, pointing out its importance as a structuring factor of polar benthic communities. Considering the challenges of Antarctic field work, this model represents a powerful tool for assessing, understanding, and predicting the effects of climate change on threatened Antarctic coastal ecosystems.

Suggested Citation

  • Luciana Torre & Paulo C. Carmona Tabares & Fernando Momo & João F. C. A. Meyer & Ricardo Sahade, 2017. "Climate change effects on Antarctic benthos: a spatially explicit model approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 733-746, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1915-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1915-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-017-1915-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-017-1915-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mahlon C. Kennicutt & Steven L. Chown & John J. Cassano & Daniela Liggett & Rob Massom & Lloyd S. Peck & Steve R. Rintoul & John W. V. Storey & David G. Vaughan & Terry J. Wilson & William J. Sutherla, 2014. "Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science," Nature, Nature, vol. 512(7512), pages 23-25, August.
    2. Victor Smetacek & Stephen Nicol, 2005. "Polar ocean ecosystems in a changing world," Nature, Nature, vol. 437(7057), pages 362-368, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tedesco, Letizia & Vichi, Marcello & Thomas, David N., 2012. "Process studies on the ecological coupling between sea ice algae and phytoplankton," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 120-138.
    2. Kaiser, Brooks A. & Bakanev, Sergey & Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedsø & Carson, Marcus & Eide, Arne & Fernandez, Linda & Halpin, Patrick & Izmalkov, Sergei & Kyhn, Line A. & Österblom, Henrik & Punt, Maarten, 2015. "Spatial issues in Arctic marine resource governance workshop summary and comment," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-5.
    3. H. Chanakya & Durga Mahapatra & R. Sarada & R. Abitha, 2013. "Algal biofuel production and mitigation potential in India," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 113-136, January.
    4. Hoover, Carie & Pitcher, Tony & Christensen, Villy, 2013. "Effects of hunting, fishing and climate change on the Hudson Bay marine ecosystem: II. Ecosystem model future projections," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 143-156.
    5. M. S. Clark & J. I. Hoffman & L. S. Peck & L. Bargelloni & D. Gande & C. Havermans & B. Meyer & T. Patarnello & T. Phillips & K. R. Stoof-Leichsenring & D. L. J. Vendrami & A. Beck & G. Collins & M. W, 2023. "Multi-omics for studying and understanding polar life," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Carscallen, W. Mather A. & Romanuk, Tamara N., 2012. "Structure and robustness to species loss in Arctic and Antarctic ice-shelf meta-ecosystem webs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 208-218.
    7. Haiyang, Yao & Haiyan, Wang & Zhichen, Zhang & Yong, Xu & Kurths, Juergen, 2021. "A stochastic nonlinear differential propagation model for underwater acoustic propagation: Theory and solution," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    8. Guillaumot, Charlène & Saucède, Thomas & Morley, Simon A. & Augustine, Starrlight & Danis, Bruno & Kooijman, Sebastiaan, 2020. "Can DEB models infer metabolic differences between intertidal and subtidal morphotypes of the Antarctic limpet Nacella concinna (Strebel, 1908)?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    9. Goedegebuure, Merel & Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica & Corney, Stuart P. & Hindell, Mark A. & Constable, Andrew J., 2017. "Beyond big fish: The case for more detailed representations of top predators in marine ecosystem models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 359(C), pages 182-192.
    10. Christian Winter & Jérôme P Payet & Curtis A Suttle, 2012. "Modeling the Winter–to–Summer Transition of Prokaryotic and Viral Abundance in the Arctic Ocean," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-14, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-017-1915-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.