IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v125y2014i1p95-109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain

Author

Listed:
  • Rosmeri Rocha
  • Michelle Reboita
  • Lívia Dutra
  • Marta Llopart
  • Erika Coppola

Abstract

Interannual variability over South America (SA) is mainly controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This study investigates the ENSO precipitation signal during austral spring (September–October–November-SON) over SA. Three global circulation models-GCMs-(MPI, GFDL and HadGEM2) are used for RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) downscaling of the present (1975–2005) near-future (2020–2050) and far-future (2070–2098) climates using two greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the present climate, only HadGEM2 simulates a frequency of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) years similar to the observations. In terms of ENSO frequency changes, only in the far-future RCP8.5 climate there is greater agreement among GCMs, indicating an increase (decrease) of EN (LN) years. In the present climate, validation indicates that only the RegCM4 ensemble mean provides acceptable precipitation biases (smaller than ±20 %) in the two investigated regions. In this period, the GCMs and RegCM4 agree on the relationship between ENSO and precipitation in SA, i.e., both are able to capture the observed regions of positive/negative rainfall anomalies during EN years, with RegCM4 improving on the GCMs’ signal over southeastern SA. For the near and far future climates, in general, the projections indicate an increase (decrease) of precipitation over southeastern SA (northern-northeastern SA). However, the relationship between ENSO and rainfall in most of RegCM4 and GCM members is weaker in the near and far future climates than in the present day climate. This is likely connected with the GCMs’ projection of the more intense ENSO signal displaced to the central basin of Pacific Ocean in the far future compared to present climate. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Rosmeri Rocha & Michelle Reboita & Lívia Dutra & Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola, 2014. "Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 95-109, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:95-109
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1119-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-014-1119-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-014-1119-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Filippo Giorgi, 2014. "Introduction to the special issue: the phase I CORDEX RegCM4 hyper-matrix (CREMA) experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 1-5, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Janaína Cassiano Santos & Gustavo Bastos Lyra & Marcel Carvalho Abreu & José Francisco Oliveira-Júnior & Leonardo Bohn & Gisleine Cunha-Zeri & Marcelo Zeri, 2022. "Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2531-2558, April.
    2. Rafael J. R. Batista & Fabio L. T. Gonçalves & Rosmeri P. Rocha, 2016. "Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 439-454, August.
    3. Nóia Júnior, Rogério de Souza & Sentelhas, Paulo Cesar, 2019. "Soybean-maize off-season double crop system in Brazil as affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation phases," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 254-267.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinxin Zhu & Xuerou Weng & Bing Guo & Xueting Zeng & Cong Dong, 2023. "Investigating Extreme Snowfall Changes in China Based on an Ensemble of High-Resolution Regional Climate Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    2. Marta Llopart & Erika Coppola & Filippo Giorgi & Rosmeri Rocha & Santiago Cuadra, 2014. "Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 111-125, July.
    3. Filippo Giorgi & Erika Coppola & Francesca Raffaele & Gulilat Diro & Ramon Fuentes-Franco & Graziano Giuliani & Ashu Mamgain & Marta Llopart & Laura Mariotti & Csaba Torma, 2014. "Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(1), pages 39-51, July.
    4. Rafael J. R. Batista & Fabio L. T. Gonçalves & Rosmeri P. Rocha, 2016. "Present climate and future projections of the thermal comfort index for the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 439-454, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:125:y:2014:i:1:p:95-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.