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Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004

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  • Sapna Sharma
  • John Magnuson
  • Gricelda Mendoza
  • Stephen Carpenter

Abstract

We investigate the temporal patterns in inter-annual variability in ice breakup dates for Lakes Mendota and Monona, Wisconsin, between 1905 and 2004. We analyze the contributions of long-term trends attributed to climate change, local weather, indices of sunspots, and large-scale climatic drivers, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niňo Southern Ocean Index (ENSO) on time series of lake-ice breakup. The relative importance of the aforementioned explanatory variables was assessed using linear regression and variation partitioning models accounting for cyclic temporal dynamics as represented by Moran Eigenvector Maps (MEM). Model results explain an average of 58 % of the variation in ice breakup dates. A combination of the long-term linear trends, rain and snowfall in the month prior to breakup, air temperature in the winter prior to breakup, cyclic dynamics associated with sunspot numbers, ENSO, and for Lake Mendota, NAO, all significantly influence the timing of ice breakup. Significant cycle lengths were 3.5, 9, 11, and 50 years. Despite their proximity, Lakes Mendota and Monona exhibit differences in how and which explanatory variables were incorporated into the models. Our results indicate that lake ice dynamics are complex in both lakes and multiple interacting processes explain the residuals around the linear warming trends that characterize lake ice records. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Sapna Sharma & John Magnuson & Gricelda Mendoza & Stephen Carpenter, 2013. "Influences of local weather, large-scale climatic drivers, and the ca. 11 year solar cycle on lake ice breakup dates; 1905–2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 857-870, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:857-870
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0670-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barbara Benson & John Magnuson & Olaf Jensen & Virginia Card & Glenn Hodgkins & Johanna Korhonen & David Livingstone & Kenton Stewart & Gesa Weyhenmeyer & Nick Granin, 2012. "Extreme events, trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 299-323, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna-Maria Soja & Károly Kutics & Karl Maracek & Gábor Molnár & Gerhard Soja, 2014. "Changes in ice phenology characteristics of two Central European steppe lakes from 1926 to 2012 - influences of local weather and large scale oscillation patterns," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(1), pages 119-133, September.
    2. Kevin Blagrave & Sapna Sharma, 2023. "Projecting climate change impacts on ice phenology across Midwestern and Northeastern United States lakes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Sapna Sharma & John Magnuson, 2014. "Oscillatory dynamics do not mask linear trends in the timing of ice breakup for Northern Hemisphere lakes from 1855 to 2004," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(4), pages 835-847, June.
    4. Daniel F. Schmidt & Kevin M. Grise & Michael L. Pace, 2019. "High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(3), pages 517-532, March.

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