IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Small-Area Agricultural Incomes Using a CGE Model of the Australian Economy


  • Higgs, Peter J
  • Powell, Alan A


In this paper the ORANI model, which is a large computable general equilibrium (hereafter, CGE) model of the Australian economy, is used to generate forecasts of agricultural incomes for the south-western region of Victoria. ORANI is first solved for the effects of an economic scenario on commodity output responses in a geographically defined agricultural industry of the model which encompasses the region. These responses are then used to generate output indexes in local government areas (LGAs) in the region according to their base-period commodity mixes. Finally, these projections are converted into real farm income forecasts. Our methodology breaks new ground in combining short- and long-term forecasts, and in disaggregating forecasts for a national agricultural industry to the LGA level.

Suggested Citation

  • Higgs, Peter J & Powell, Alan A, 1990. "Forecasting Small-Area Agricultural Incomes Using a CGE Model of the Australian Economy," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 43-59.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:24:y:1990:i:1:p:43-59

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. G. Andrew Bernat, Jr. & Kenneth Hanson, 1995. "Regional Impacts Of Farm Programs: A Top-Down CGE Analysis," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, Winter.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:24:y:1990:i:1:p:43-59. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.