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Causal Link Between the Polish Stock Market and Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (Zwiazek przyczynowy miedzy polskim rynkiem akcji i wybranymi wskaznikami makroekonomicznymi)

Author

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  • Szczepan Urjasz

    (Faculty of Management, University of Warsaw)

Abstract

This article proposes a study of dynamics in the bi-directional relationship between macroeconomic factors and the stock market in Poland. In order to verify Granger’s causality and analyse the course of the impulse response function, a model of vector autoregression was used. The analysis is based on monthly data and covers the period from January 2004 to December 2018. The results of the investigation show that the stock exchange index is a significant guide for the industrial production index and the relation is positive. At the same time, interest rates are not one of the most important variables that affect stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Szczepan Urjasz, 2019. "Causal Link Between the Polish Stock Market and Selected Macroeconomic Indicators (Zwiazek przyczynowy miedzy polskim rynkiem akcji i wybranymi wskaznikami makroekonomicznymi)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 17(83), pages 179-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgm:pzwzuw:v:17:i:83:y:2019:p:179-196
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock market; industrial production; interest rate; impulse response function; VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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