Integrated Simulation and Regression Framework for Delivery Management in E-commerce (Wykorzystanie polaczenia symulacji i regresji dla problemu zarzadzania dostawami w sektorze e-commerce)

Problems with commodities and the delivery of products have accompanied trade since its beginnings. It is not possible to stock up, as there will always be limitations – of storage space, resources or financial resources. The e-commerce sector in the age of Industry 4.0 era faces its own specific problems: on the one hand, customers want customised products fast, on the other hand, shops have to lower storage costs and efficiently manage the supply chain. The paper proposes a framework of simulation modelling with a regression module for shops operating in the e-commerce sector; it is a tool for decision-makers that simulates the ordering and delivering process with a varying number of products, suppliers and a varying demand. The aim is to define a novel approach where computer simulation and regression models are integrated and combined in order to provide decision-makers with information about the average delivery time to customers ordering online products and possible delays. The results of analyses show 90% reliability of the regression model in terms of changes in the average delivery time depending on number of products sold by the shop, demand fluctuation, the number of distributors and the average delivery time of products from the distributor.