IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/smppub/v11y2022i2p168-184.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Re-visiting the Armey Curve Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence from India

Author

Listed:
  • Neha Jain
  • Niharika Sinha

Abstract

The present study aims to examine the relationship between government size and economic growth in India for the period from 1961 to 2018. Additionally, as a novel contribution, the current study also attempts to examine the existence of Armey curve and estimate the threshold level of government size in India. The empirical estimation uses time series analysis and employs quadratic ordinary least squares (OLS) function and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to co-integration to examine the association between the variables. The result of the study confirms a long-run significant positive impact of government size on economic growth. The present study also finds the existence of Armey curve and supports the Armey curve hypothesis in India. There exists a positive impact of government size till the threshold level, and beyond the threshold level, the coefficient of economic growth tends to decrease. The estimated optimal government size is 11.89% for India; this shows that, currently, the government spends less than the optimum amount. It implies that India operates somewhere on the positive slope of the Armey curve, and there is a scope for the government to expand its size further. However, the findings of the study also suggest that a large size of the government can be harmful for the efficiency of economic growth; thus, adjusting the government at its optimum is crucial to the economy. JEL Classifications: B23, C01, C87, H11, H50, O47

Suggested Citation

  • Neha Jain & Niharika Sinha, 2022. "Re-visiting the Armey Curve Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence from India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(2), pages 168-184, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:168-184
    DOI: 10.1177/22779787211054007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/22779787211054007
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/22779787211054007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; public finance; ARDL bound test; public expenditure; Armey curve; government size;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:168-184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.