Risk of Developing NCDs in Later Life among the Overweight and Obese Women in India: Insights from a Nationally Representative Longitudinal Study

The National Family Health Survey has consistently documented a sharp rise in overweight and obesity among Indian adults. Among women of reproductive age, the prevalence of obesity has nearly doubled in the past 15 years—from 12.6 per cent in 2005–2006 to 24.0 per cent in 2019–2021. The existing literature highlights a strong association between household economic status and the incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as hypertension, diabetes and heart disease. However, the growing burden of overweight and obesity elevates NCD risk even among economically disadvantaged groups. Evidence from developing countries remains limited, partly because NCDs develop gradually and their links with obesity are difficult to establish using cross-sectional data. Drawing on a panel of 24,547 women aged 15–49 years, this study examines the risk of developing NCDs among overweight and obese women in India. Multivariate logistic regression models were employed to identify the correlates of NCD onset, and robustness checks were performed to assess how changes in obesity status influenced disease risk. The findings reveal that while wealthier women face a higher overall risk of developing NCDs, this risk is also shaped by the body mass index (BMI) status of women. Importantly, the rich–poor gap in NCD prevalence diminishes once women become overweight or obese. Although much of the existing literature emphasises the role of socio-economic and demographic factors in NCD development, this study suggests that their influence may be substantially offset by lifestyle and health behaviour modifications that help in maintaining a healthy BMI among reproductive-age women. JEL Codes: I12, I14, I18