IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v39y2002i4p487-501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credibility and Reputation in Peacemaking

Author

Listed:
  • TONY ADDISON

    (World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER), United Nations University Addison@wider.unu.edu)

  • S. MANSOOB MURSHED

    (Institute of Social Studies, The Hague Murshed@iss.nl)

Abstract

This article analyses credibility and reputation in the context of peace negotiations. The model is applicable to the credibility of peace agreements in post-conflict situations in the immediate aftermath of civil war, where there is a danger of conflict breaking out again. The analysis is motivated by the empirical regularity with which peace agreements break down in the context of civil war, as for example in Angola, Sierra Leone and many of the conflicts in the Caucasus region. Where war provides economic gains to one side, peace is not incentive compatible, and peace agreements will necessarily degenerate, as they become time inconsistent. The party that has something to gain from surprise warfare, agreeing to peace but reneging on it, will do so and return to war. The levels of conflict chosen by this group are an increasing function of greed and capturable rents, but decreasing in the direct costs of war. In this context, action by external powers could lower the risk of civil war reigniting. Basically, these involve a greater commitment to peace, induced by policies known as commitment technologies. Sanctions, aid and direct intervention, if effective, could eliminate conflict, as well as help in devising commitment technologies to peace. In a multiple-time framework, uncertainty about the type of the group that may renege on peace generates extra costs in terms of greater fighting, and the key role of the discount rate in trading off present versus future consumption enters the analysis. High discount rates and the impatience to consume at present engender greater conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Addison & S. Mansoob Murshed, 2002. "Credibility and Reputation in Peacemaking," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(4), pages 487-501, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:39:y:2002:i:4:p:487-501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/39/4/487.abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tony Addison & Philippe Le Billon & S. Mansoob Murshed, 2001. "Finance in conflict and reconstruction," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 951-964.
    2. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1995. "Anarchy and Its Breakdown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 26-52, February.
    3. Michelle R. Garfinkel & Stergios Skaperdas, 2000. "Conflict without Misperceptions or Incomplete Information," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(6), pages 793-807, December.
    4. Garfinkel, M.R. & Skaperdas, S., 2000. "Conflict without Misperceptions or Incomplete Information: how the Future Matters," Papers 99-00-11, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
    5. Azam, Jean-Paul, 1995. "How to Pay for the Peace? A Theoretical Framework with References to African Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 83(1-2), pages 173-184, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mansoob Murshed, 2008. "On the Non-Contractual Nature of Donor-Recipient Interaction in Development Assistance," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2008-71, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Tony Addison & Rachel Gisselquist & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Saurabh Singhal, 2015. "Needs vs Expediency - Poverty Reduction and Social Development in Post-Conflict Countries," Working Papers id:7371, eSocialSciences.
    3. Murshed, S. Mansoob, 2004. "Strategic interaction and donor policy determination," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 311-323.
    4. Mansoob Murshed, 2002. "Strategic Interaction and Donor Policy Determination in a Domestic Setting," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-107, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2007. "The conflict-growth nexus and the poverty of nations," Working Papers 43, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    6. Cuesta, Jose, 2017. "Redistribution and military coups," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 12-31.
    7. Milante, Gary, 2007. "A kleptocrat's survival guide : autocratic longevity in the face of civil conflict," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4186, The World Bank.
    8. Mansoob Murshed, 2001. "Transaction Cost Politics, Institutions for Commitment and Rent Seeking," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-125, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Mansoob Murshed & Scott Gates, 2004. "Spatial Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-43, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. José Cuesta & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2008. "Las Micro-Fundaciones de contrato frente a conflictos con consecuencias en la paz internacional," Research Department Publications 4592, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Jose Cuesta & Mansoob Murshed, 2008. "The Micro-foundations of Social Contracts, Civil Conflicts and International Peace-Making," Research Working Papers 8, MICROCON - A Micro Level Analysis of Violent Conflict.
    12. Patricia Justino, 2012. "Nutrition, Governance and Violence: A Framework for the Analysis of Resilience and Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Contexts of Violent Conflict," HiCN Working Papers 132, Households in Conflict Network.
    13. Jean-Paul Azam, 2006. "The Paradox of Power Reconsidered: A Theory of Political Regimes in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(1), pages 26-58, March.
    14. Mansoob Murshed, 2006. "Indivisibility, Fairness, Farsightedness and their Implications for Security," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-28, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Andreas Mehler, 2008. "Not always in the people’s interest: Power-sharing arrangements in African Peace agreements," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series 4008, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    16. Tony Addison & Mansoob Murshed, 2005. "Transnational terrorism as a spillover of domestic disputes in other countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 69-82.
    17. Tony Addison & Rachel M. Gisselquist & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa & Saurabh Singhal, 2015. "Needs versus Expediency: Poverty Reduction and Social Development in Post-conflict Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-063, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Jose Cuesta & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2012. "On the micro-foundations of contract versus conflict with implications for international peace-making," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 1250009-125.
    19. Kaila, Heidi & Singhal, Saurabh & Tuteja, Divya, 2020. "Development programs, security, and violence reduction: Evidence from an insurgency in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    20. S. Mansoob Murshed & Scott Gates, 2005. "Spatial–Horizontal Inequality and the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 121-134, February.
    21. Tony Addison & Mansoob Murshed, 2001. "From Conflict to Reconstruction: Reviving the Social Contract," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-48, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Jose Cuesta, 2013. "Theory and Empirics of Democracy and Crime Revisited: How Much Further Can We Go with Existing Data and Methodologies?," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 645-674, July.
    24. S. Mansoob Murshed, 2009. "On the Non-Contractual Nature of Donor-Recipient Interaction in Development Assistance," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 416-428, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maxime Menuet & Petros G. Sekeris, 2021. "Overconfidence and conflict," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1483-1499, October.
    2. Chang, Yang-Ming & Sanders, Shane & Walia, Bhavneet, 2015. "The costs of conflict: A choice-theoretic, equilibrium analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 62-65.
    3. Ansink, Erik & Weikard, Hans-Peter, 2009. "Contested water rights," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 247-260, June.
    4. Hoffmann, Magnus & Rota-Graziosi, Grégoire, 2012. "Endogenous timing in general rent-seeking and conflict models," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 168-184.
    5. Dane Rowlands & David Carment, 2006. "Force And Bias: Towards A Predictive Model Of Effective Third-Party Intervention," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 435-456.
    6. Stergios Skaperdas, 2003. "Restraining the Genuine Homo Economicus: Why the Economy Cannot Be Divorced from Its Governance," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 135-162, July.
    7. Nathan Fiala & Stergios Skaperdas, 2011. "Economic Perspectives on Civil Wars," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Noh, Suk Jae, 2018. "More effective defense capabilities and pareto-improving resource transfers: Conflict on the Korean Peninsula," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007. "Economics of Conflict: An Overview," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 649-709, Elsevier.
    10. Hoffmann, Magnus & Rota-Graziosi, Grégoire, 2012. "Endogenous timing in general rent-seeking and conflict models," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 168-184.
    11. Smith, Adam C. & Houser, Daniel & Leeson, Peter T. & Ostad, Ramin, 2014. "The costs of conflict," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 61-71.
    12. Garance Genicot & Stergios Skaperdas, 2002. "Investing in Conflict Management," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 154-170, February.
    13. Pelosse, Yohan, 2009. "Mediated Contests and Strategic Foundations for Contest Success Functions," MPRA Paper 18664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Maxwell, John W. & Reuveny, Rafael, 2005. "Continuing conflict," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 30-52, September.
      • John W. Maxwell & Rafael Reuveny, 2004. "Continuing Conflict," Working Papers 2004-27, Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, Department of Business Economics and Public Policy.
    15. Bharat Goel & Arijit Sen, 2019. "Appropriative Conflicts and the Evolution of Property Rights," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2019-06, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    16. Stergios Skaperdas, 2008. "An economic approach to analyzing civil wars," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 25-44, January.
    17. Dziubiński, Marcin & Goyal, Sanjeev & Minarsch, David E.N., 2021. "The strategy of conquest," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Rafael Reuveny & John W. Maxwell & Jefferson Davis, 2011. "Dynamic Winner-Take-All Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 471-492, August.
    19. Antoine Pietri, 2017. "Les modèles de « rivalité coercitive » dans l’analyse économique des conflits," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 127(3), pages 307-352.
    20. Mehrdad Vahabi, 2012. "Political Economy of Conflict Foreword," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 122(2), pages 153-169.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:39:y:2002:i:4:p:487-501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.