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Contest Outcome Uncertainty and Fan Decisions: A Meta-Analysis

Author

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  • Clay Collins
  • Brad R. Humphreys

Abstract

Outcome uncertainty represents a central, defining area of sports economic research. Contest outcome uncertainty (COU), the idea that fan expectations about game outcomes affects attendance decisions, receives substantial attention in the literature, including many papers published in this journal. The standard model of fan decisions under uncertainty generates two diametrically opposed predictions about the COU-attendance relationship, depending on fan preferences, generating tension in the empirical literature. We undertake a meta-analysis of the empirical COU literature to assess empirical support for these predictions. We identify more than 500 empirical model specifications reported in 97 COU papers. The results slightly favor the loss aversion version of the model, but the literature contains no consensus. Sport analyzed and choice of COU proxy variable have no relationship to reported results. Simple OLS and panel data methods generate much of the evidence, highlighting the importance of using causal inference methods in future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Clay Collins & Brad R. Humphreys, 2022. "Contest Outcome Uncertainty and Fan Decisions: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(6), pages 789-807, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jospec:v:23:y:2022:i:6:p:789-807
    DOI: 10.1177/15270025221091544
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Budzinski, Oliver & Feddersen, Arne & Kunz-Kaltenhäuser, Philipp, 2023. "Zwischen Wettbewerbsorganisation und Wettbewerbsverzerrungen - Regelsetzungen durch europäische Fußballverbände," Ilmenau Economics Discussion Papers 174, Ilmenau University of Technology, Institute of Economics.
    2. Raphael Flepp & Tim Pawlowski & Travis Richardson, 2025. "Suspense and Surprise in European Football," Papers 2506.21253, arXiv.org.
    3. Pawlik, Maciej & Paluch, Robert & Boruta, Michał & Hołyst, Janusz A., 2025. "How random are team sports leagues?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 675(C).
    4. Juan D. Moreno-Ternero & Tim Pawlowski & Shlomo Weber, 2026. "International rewards and budget concentration in domestic sports leagues," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 357(2), pages 1079-1099, February.
    5. Thomas J. Miceli, 2024. "A Note on the Preferences of Sports Fans: Partisanship Versus Uncertainty of Outcome," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(2), pages 155-168, February.
    6. Dubois, Marc, 2025. "Competitive attractiveness measurement in sports leagues: Sequential procedures for heterogeneous competitors," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D11 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Theory
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Z20 - Other Special Topics - - Sports Economics - - - General

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