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Paper Tigers: Assessing the Role of Corruption in Shaping Conflict Outcomes

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  • Eric Keels
  • J. Michael Greig

Abstract

While government corruption is often cited as a reason for poor military performance, little empirical attention has been devoted to understanding how governance structures influence corruption’s impact. To address this gap, we introduce a theory of how corruption undermines military efficacy in armed conflicts, arguing that regime type plays a critical role in shaping the impact of corruption on military performance. We focus specifically on public sector theft and embezzlement on fighting effectiveness. This type of corruption brings especially pernicious effects as it stokes morale problems among military personnel and weakens oversight of fighting effectiveness. To test our theory, we examine the outcomes of all lethal military interstate disputes (MIDS) and intrastate armed conflicts through 2014. Bridging the comparative politics and military effectiveness literatures, our results offer greater insight into how autocratic policies hinder armed forces as well as the need for stronger civilian oversight to ensure battlefield efficacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Keels & J. Michael Greig, 2026. "Paper Tigers: Assessing the Role of Corruption in Shaping Conflict Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 70(5), pages 780-806, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:70:y:2026:i:5:p:780-806
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027251374195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron S. Brown & Christopher J. Fariss & R. Blake McMahon, 2016. "Recouping after Coup-Proofing: Compromised Military Effectiveness and Strategic Substitution," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Daniel Kofi Banini, 2020. "Security sector corruption and military effectiveness: the influence of corruption on countermeasures against Boko Haram in Nigeria," Small Wars and Insurgencies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, January.
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