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Accounting for Child Mortality in the Pre-Industrial European Economy


  • Bruno Chiarini

    () (University of Naples "Parthenope")

  • Massimo Giannini

    () (University of Rome "Tor Vergata")


Different factors are often assigned an important role in the emergence of modern growth, such as the relationship between demographic factors and changes in institutions that promote innovation, the production of new ideas, the development of education or improvements in technology. In this paper we examine a basic factor, the probability of child survival. We find a negative relationship between child mortality and birth rate. Our results conflict with works which argue that with stochastic mortality a large precautionary demand for children arises, which would lead to mortality decline having a negative effect on net fertility.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruno Chiarini & Massimo Giannini, 2011. "Accounting for Child Mortality in the Pre-Industrial European Economy," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 107-124, April-Jun.
  • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:y:2011:i:2:p:107-124

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    More about this item


    child mortality; fertility; old age security motive; demographic transition;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth


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