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China: Economy in Transition
[Китай: Экономика Переходного Периода]


  • Nosov, Vasilii (Носов, Василий)

    () (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia)

  • Tseplyaeva, Julia (Цепляева, Юлия)

    () (Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank of Russia)


China’s economy is slowing. China’s growth in the past decade has been provided by cheap labor and the investment inflow, but the possibility of extensive growth has been exhausted. The transition to consumer demand-based model of growth is slow. China has significant resources to gain private consumption, however, the consumption can become a key driver of growth only in 2030. However, the accumulated imbalances pose significant risks for the stability of transition to the new growth model. High debt of the corporate sector, People’s Bank of China’s contradictory choice of monetary policy and the hidden political risks can lead to a serious economic slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Nosov, Vasilii (Носов, Василий) & Tseplyaeva, Julia (Цепляева, Юлия), 2016. "China: Economy in Transition
    [Китай: Экономика Переходного Периода]
    ," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 46-55, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:ep1633

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    More about this item


    China; the extensive growth model; consumer demand; high debt of the corporate sector; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination


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