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The pessimistic scenario of economic development in the crisis period

Author

Listed:
  • Gurvich, Evsey

    (Economy experts group)

  • Kataranova, Maria

    (Economy experts group)

  • Lebedinskaya, Elena

    (Economy experts group)

  • Pilnik, Nikolai

    (Economy experts group)

  • Suslina, Alexandra

    (Economy experts group)

Abstract

The global financial crisis has led to a drastic revision of macroeconomic forecasts. So, if by 3.8% in April 2008, the IMF forecast for 2009 global economic growth, in January 2009 - only 0.5%. The crisis has severely affected the Russian economy. Its impact is mainly in two ways: through the terms of trade and capital flows. The price of crude oil of Urals, which is the average for July 2008 reached a record 129.7 dollars. Per barrel in December dropped to an average of 39.1 dollars. Per barrel, falling, thus, more than three times. As a result, investment demand has slowed down considerably, if accounted for 18-20%, in November at the beginning of 2008, the growth of investment in fixed assets in relation to the corresponding period of the previous year - only 3.9%. In November, industrial production fell sharply (by 8.7% compared to November 2007), real disposable income fell by 6.2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurvich, Evsey & Kataranova, Maria & Lebedinskaya, Elena & Pilnik, Nikolai & Suslina, Alexandra, 2009. "The pessimistic scenario of economic development in the crisis period," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 18-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ecopol:0916
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