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Modeling Inflation In Romania


  • Pelinescu, Elena

    () (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Turlea, Geomina

    () (Institute of World Economy, Romanian Academy, and Romanian Center for Economic Modelling, Bucharest)


This paper is organized in three parts: a discussion of general issues, an overview of evolution of inflation, highlighting the stages of the persistent inflation in Romania, and a model of Romanian inflation using VAR methodology. The purpose of the paper is to present an efficient instrument for simulation and research of inflation and its determinants in Romania, with a focus on the short-term impact of changes in money, foreign exchange and wage policies as well as the impact of external shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelinescu, Elena & Turlea, Geomina, 2004. "Modeling Inflation In Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 1(4), pages 68-86, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:1:y:2004:i:4:p:68-86

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, June.
    2. Blum, Jurg, 1999. "Do capital adequacy requirements reduce risks in banking?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 755-771, May.
    3. Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
    4. Johnston, Mark, 2009. "Extending the Basel II approach to estimate capital requirements for equity investments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1177-1185, June.
    5. Brooks, C. & Clare, A. D. & Persand, G., 2000. "A word of caution on calculating market-based minimum capital risk requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1557-1574, October.
    6. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M., 2006. "Does the Basle Capital Accord reduce bank fragility? An assessment of the value-at-risk approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1631-1660, October.
    7. Cuoco, Domenico & Liu, Hong, 2006. "An analysis of VaR-based capital requirements," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 362-394, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Capraru Bogdan & Ihnatov Iulian, 2011. "External Factors Influence On Inflation: The Case Of Romania," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 469-475, July.
    2. Sánchez, Marcelo, 2010. "Modelling anti-inflationary monetary targeting: with an application to Romania," Working Paper Series 1186, European Central Bank.

    More about this item


    inflation; price; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • P22 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Prices


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