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An Evaluation of Two Alternative Supply Models of Natural Gas

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  • John A. Neri

Abstract

Two natural gas models currently used to forecast the response of exploration and production to wellhead price deregulation are examined. These models are based on the same theoretical exploration and discovery process, but differ in the estimation of this process. One model is purely econometric while the other combines econometric and engineering elements. Each model has been simulated over the historical period 1965-1972 and the forecast period 1975-1980. While the historical simulations are quite similar, the forecasts are not. Reasons for the forecast differences are given.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Neri, 1977. "An Evaluation of Two Alternative Supply Models of Natural Gas," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 289-302, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:8:y:1977:i:spring:p:289-302
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    Cited by:

    1. Machiel Mulder & Arie ten Cate & Ali Aouragh & Joeri Gorter, 2004. "Gas exploration and production at the Dutch continental shelf: an assessment of the 'Depreciation at Will'," CPB Document 66, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Machiel Mulder & Arie ten Cate & Ali Aouragh & Joeri Gorter, 2004. "Gas exploration and production at the Dutch continental shelf: an assessment of the 'Depreciation at Will'," CPB Document 66.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. ten Cate, Arie & Mulder, Machiel, 2007. "Impact of the oil price and fiscal facilities on offshore mining at the Dutch Continental Shelf," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5601-5613, November.

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