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El tipo de cambio real, el ingreso nacional y el ingreso foráneo en la determinación de la balanza comercial en Bolivia: 1992-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Hernández Barriga, Plinio

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, UMSNH.)

  • Rivero Ticona, Alexander

    (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, UMSNH.)

  • Frías Pinedo, Isidro

    (Universidad de Compostela, España)

Abstract

The objective of this research is to examine the effect of real exchange rate, national income and foreign income on Bolivia’s trade balance, during the period 1992-2011. To that aim, a cointegration and an error correction model were developed, applying the Johansen methodology, including and excluding natural gas exports. Results suggest that real exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in the long run, validating the Marshall-Lerner condition, whereas, in the short run, exchange rate was not significant, not showing evidence for the J curve. National and foreign income had a negative and positive effect, respectively, on Bolivia’s trade balance. Nevertheless, given the obtained income elasticity differences, a balance of payments restricted economic growth is observable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández Barriga, Plinio & Rivero Ticona, Alexander & Frías Pinedo, Isidro, 2012. "El tipo de cambio real, el ingreso nacional y el ingreso foráneo en la determinación de la balanza comercial en Bolivia: 1992-2011," Revista Nicolaita de Estudios Económicos, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, vol. 0(2), pages 27-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:rnicee:0070
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bolivia; trade balance; Marshall-Lerner; restricted economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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