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Determinación econométrica del tipo de cambio en México


  • Navarro, José César Lenin

    () (Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales de la Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo)

  • Santos, Jessica

    (Estudiante Becaria del Programa Académico CONACYT de la Maestría en Ciencias en Comercio Exterior en el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales de la Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo.)


The present research examines the determinants of the nominal exchange rate in Mexico, for the short and long run. Based on a Cointegration model, we conclude that, for the long term, the nominal exchange rate is determined by: a) expectations of the nominal exchange rate; b) prices; c) monetary supply, and; d) productivity. While, for de short run, the nominal exchange rate is determined by: a) risk; expectations on the nominal exchange rate, and; c) prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Navarro, José César Lenin & Santos, Jessica, 2007. "Determinación econométrica del tipo de cambio en México," Revista Nicolaita de Estudios Económicos, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Empresariales, vol. 0(1), pages 9-27.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:rnicee:0025

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    monetarism; fundamental model; purchasing power parity; cointegration; exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General


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