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Who Bears the Cost of Devaluation? Price Dynamics and Welfare Impacts During Bolivia’s 2024-2025 Currency Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Werner L. Hernani-Limarino

    (Academia Boliviana de Ciencias Económicas (ABCE))

Abstract

This paper dissects the asymmetric price and welfare consequences of Bolivia’s de facto 60% exchange rate devaluation using high-frequency scanner data from a national supermarket chain. Despite no formal float, consumer prices rose by 15% –with imported goods jumping 16.8% and domestic goods lagging at 9.2%. The inflation burden fell unevenly: while the cost of high-income households’ baskets increased more (17.6%), their superior substitution elasticity allowed them to buffer welfare losses to 10.9% by shifting toward cheaper or newly available alternatives. In contrast, low-income households faced smaller price increases (14.5%) but larger welfare losses (13.4%) due to low substitutability and rigid consumption patterns tied to essential imported staples.

Suggested Citation

  • Werner L. Hernani-Limarino, 2025. "Who Bears the Cost of Devaluation? Price Dynamics and Welfare Impacts During Bolivia’s 2024-2025 Currency Crisis," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", vol. 23(44), pages 11-63.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:revlde:022038
    DOI: 10.35319/lajed.202544558
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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