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Does a Federal Penitentiary impact crime? Evidence from Catanduvas, Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Leonardo Schmitz Mosca

    (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora)

  • Luiz Pedro Couto Santos Silva

    (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora)

  • Eduardo Simões de Almeida

    (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora)

  • Marco Antonio Jorge

    (Universidade Federal de Sergipe)

Abstract

The investment in prison infrastructure is a policy to fight crime. On the other hand, if it influences in the spatial displacement of crime, the construction of a penitentiary may generate negative localized effects. Dispite this, there are few studies evaluating the potential localized effects arising from the establishment of new maximum-security prisons. We use a 24-year longitudinal data on sinthetic control models to estimate the impacts of the construction of the Catanduvas Maximum-Security Penitentiary on homicide rates in its microregion. Furthermore, we combine the observation of spatial spillover effects with the synthetic control methodology to achieve better fit between the pretreatment control and the synthetic unit. Our findings suggest a transient and isolated increase in local homicidies, which support that the prison did not act as a catalyst for long-term local violence.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Schmitz Mosca & Luiz Pedro Couto Santos Silva & Eduardo Simões de Almeida & Marco Antonio Jorge, 2026. "Does a Federal Penitentiary impact crime? Evidence from Catanduvas, Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:rberur:022028
    DOI: 10.54766/rberu.v20i1.1128
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    JEL classification:

    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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