The Asymmetric Effect of Natural Disasters on Economic Growth in Iran: The NARDL Approach within the Framework of the Solow-Swan Theory

Achieving a high economic growth rate during the process of sustainable development has become a crucial criterion for enhancing societal welfare, reducing poverty and inequality, and strengthening national authority. Therefore, identifying the factors that affect economic growth is a primary issue for policymakers. Theoretical literature suggests that unpredictable factors, such as natural disasters, can pose significant obstacles to achieving economic growth objectives. Thus, the present study was conducted to explore how natural disasters affect economic growth and fill the gap in the literature on asymmetric economics in Iran. The theoretical framework for this study is based on the Solow-Swan economic growth theory. In this context, the research model has been estimated using the NARDL method for the period between 1980 and 2023. The results indicate that natural disasters (NDI) asymmetrically reduce economic growth in Iran in both the short and long term. Further results demonstrate that trade liberalization (TO) and the physical capital savings rate (s) have a positive influence on economic growth, while the term (n + g + δ) negatively impacts economic growth. In light of these findings, it is recommended that suitable policies be implemented to enhance the resilience of society and the nation's productive sectors, thereby effectively addressing natural disasters and ensuring sustainable economic growth for the country.