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Can risk modeling work?




Does the 2007/08 market crisis herald the end of risk modeling and the empirical method? This paper supports the hypothesis that recent risk modeling problems were caused by the use of inappropriate risk models which are fixable rather than fundamentally flawed. An extensive analysis including the sub-prime crisis shows that GARCH-based risk measures offer a potential solution to these problems. The paper also explores some risk modeling issues that arose during the crisis such as the appropriate choice of sample size and how to incorporate dynamic feedback effects into a risk model used for stress-testing. I illustrate a stress-testing method that applies the GARCH approach but results in relatively stable capital requirements preferred by practitioners. This method appears to address some of the concerns raised by regulators with respect to stress-testing practices during the market turbulence and would result in more conservative gearing levels for financial institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2009. "Can risk modeling work?," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 27, pages 82-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:1389

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. John Williamson, 2000. "The Role of the IMF: A Guide to the Reports," Policy Briefs PB00-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Raffer, Kunibert, 1998. "The tobin tax: Reviving a discussion," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 529-538, March.
    3. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    4. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2002. "IWF und Weltbank: trotz aller Mängel weiterhin gebraucht?," Kiel Discussion Papers 388, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Stephany Griffith-Jones & Stephen Spratt, 2003. "Basel II and Developing Countries: Diversification and Portfolio Effects," FMG Discussion Papers dp437, Financial Markets Group.
    6. Griffith-Jones, Stephany & Segoviano, Miguel Angel & Spratt, Stephen, 2003. "Basel II and developing countries: diversification and portfolio effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24824, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2001. "Umbaupläne und Reparaturarbeiten an der internationalen Finanzarchitektur: eine Zwischenbilanz aus deutscher Perspektive," Kiel Working Papers 1078, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
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    Cited by:

    1. Allen, David E. & Singh, Abhay K. & Powell, Robert J., 2013. "EVT and tail-risk modelling: Evidence from market indices and volatility series," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 355-369.
    2. Gola Carlo & Ilari Antonio, 2013. "Financial innovation oversight: a policy framework," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 200, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item


    Financial crisis; risk modeling; GARCH-based risk measures;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages


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