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Medium-term macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate volatility


  • Morana, Claudio

    () (Università del Piemonte Orientale)


Is there a short- to medium-term linkage between macroeconomic and exchange rate volatility? This paper provides a clear-cut answer to the above question, pointing to significant linkages and trade-offs between macroeconomic and exchange rate volatility, particularly involving output volatility. Evidence of bidirectional causality is also found, with macroeconomic volatility showing a stronger causal power than exchange rate volatility. Many tasks in finance, such as option pricing, risk analysis, and portfolio allocation, rely on the availability of good forecasting models. The paper points to new directions for the construction of improved medium-term volatility models.

Suggested Citation

  • Morana, Claudio, 2009. "Medium-term macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 25, pages 55-64.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:jofitr:0022

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 1999. "What Drives Deregulation? Economics and Politics of the Relaxation of Bank Branching Restrictions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1437-1467.
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    4. Avery, Robert B. & Bostic, Raphael W. & Calem, Paul S. & Canner, Glenn B., 1999. "Consolidation and bank branching patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 497-532, February.
    5. Beggs, Alan W & Klemperer, Paul, 1992. "Multi-period Competition with Switching Costs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 651-666, May.
    6. Erin Davis & Tara Rice, 2007. "The branch banking boom in Illinois: a byproduct of restrictive branching laws," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May.
    7. Evren Damar, H., 2007. "Does post-crisis restructuring decrease the availability of banking services? The case of Turkey," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2886-2905, September.
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    More about this item


    exchange rate volatility; macroeconomic volatility; fractional integration; structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange


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