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On private consumption and uncertainty. Empirical evidence from Spanish regional data


  • Núñez Carrasco , J. Aníbal

    () (Universidad de Málaga)


This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on household decisions regarding consumption. Based on Spanish regional data and taking as a theoretical reference precautionary saving models, we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty significantly affects household consumption. To analyze the potential association between these two factors, we used the predicted conditional volatility based on ARMA-GARCH models estimated on regional data. The results show that this measure of uncertainty has a significant effect on household consumption, especially when uncertainty is measured using an ADL model of past uncertainty. As an additional step, we attempt to identify regional patterns to account for the results.

Suggested Citation

  • Núñez Carrasco , J. Aníbal, 2013. "On private consumption and uncertainty. Empirical evidence from Spanish regional data," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 25, pages 111-131.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:invreg:0201

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Daniel A. Tirado & Elisenda Paluzie & Jordi Pons, 2002. "Economic integration and industrial location: the case of Spain before World War I," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 343-363, July.
    2. Francisco José Goerlich Gisbert, 2007. "¿Cuántos Somos? Una Excursión Por Las Estadísticas Demográficas Del Instituto Nacional De Estadística (Ine)," Working Papers. Serie EC 2007-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Alberto F. Ades & Edward L. Glaeser, 1995. "Trade and Circuses: Explaining Urban Giants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 195-227.
    4. Goerlich, Francisco José & Mas, Matilde, 2008. "Pautas de localización de la población a lo largo del siglo XX
      [Population localization patterns along the XX century]
      ," MPRA Paper 15824, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    5. Jordi Pons & Elisenda Paluzie & Javier Silvestre & Daniel A. Tirado, 2007. "Testing The New Economic Geography: Migrations And Industrial Agglomerations In Spain," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 289-313.
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    More about this item


    precautionary saving; uncertainty; Spanish regions;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General


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