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Determinants of German and Japanese Exports: A Comparative Study


  • Zestos, George K.

    (Christopher Newport University, USA)

  • Jiang, Yixiao

    (Christopher Newport University, USA)

  • Painter, Clifton

    (Christopher Newport University, USA)


This study investigates the determinants of German and Japanese exports in a comparative fashion. By estimating an autoregressive distributed lag model for each country, we find that the income elasticity of Japanese exports is three times as large as that of Germany’s exports. This relative insensitivity to external demand explains why Germany has maintained its export growth whereas Japanese exports started to stagnate after the global financial crisis. Because Germany adopted the euro in 1999, it was able to maintain large trade surpluses. If Germany had instead kept the Deutsche Mark (DM), the DM would have appreciated owing to the Central Bank of Germany’s consistent preference for a tight monetary policy, and Germany’s trade surpluses would have dissipated. A sharp increase in Japanese foreign direct investment after 2011 has also played a role in reducing Japanese exports after the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Zestos, George K. & Jiang, Yixiao & Painter, Clifton, 2021. "Determinants of German and Japanese Exports: A Comparative Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 36(3), pages 339-371.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0830

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    Cited by:

    1. Zestos, George & Jiang, Yixiao & Hamed, Alex & Raymond, Samuel, 2023. "Public debt, current account, and economic growth in Germany: Evidence from a nonlinear ARDL model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).

    More about this item


    Autoregressive distributed lag model; Export-led growth; Cointegration; Economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries


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