Uncovered Interest Parity: Are Empirical Rejections of It Valid?
There is a vast empirical literature rejecting uncovered interest parity(UIP) on the basis of regressions of the actual exchange rate change against the forward premium/discount. In this paper, whilst we confirm the conventional regression analyses, we argue that they constitute only an indirect test of UIP and that there are serious econometric flaws in such regressions that make them an unreliable means of testing for UIP. Instead, we propose a two new profitability based tests of the UIP condition based on actual dollar returns of being in the domestic and foreign currency and we find evidence that in fact the UIP condition in fact seems to be holding for three of the four parities studied even though the conventional test would have rejected UIP in all four cases. Not only do our economically more meaningful profitability based tests lead us to accept the UIP condition for three of four currencies studied but they also seem to offer superior econometric properties compared to the conventional regression analyses.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0478. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jong-Eun Lee)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.