IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/integr/022352.html

What Caused the GDP Fluctuation Over Time? A Case Study of Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Kim Won Joong

    (Konkuk University)

  • Shin Wonmun

    (Konkuk University)

  • Piao Chunyan

    (Konkuk University)

Abstract

Using a time-varying parameter (TVP) structural vector autoregression, we estimate the GDP dynamics of Korea. The impulse response results show that world industrial production, Korea's investment, and export shocks generally have statistically significant and positive effects on GDP, while exchange rate shock generally has no statistically significant effect in the long run. The variance decomposition from the TVP-VAR shows that Korea's GDP is predominantly explained by investment shocks during the Korean financial crisis, and that the relative importance of investment shocks declines during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 periods. We also find that, on average, Korea's GDP is more affected by domestic shocks (such as investment and GDP) than by ex-ternal shocks (such as world industrial production, exports, and exchange rates). While this is also true in the TVP-VAR for the Korean financial crisis and the GFC periods, Korea's GDP is more affected by external shocks during the COVID-19 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Won Joong & Shin Wonmun & Piao Chunyan, 2026. "What Caused the GDP Fluctuation Over Time? A Case Study of Korea," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 41(1), pages 137-155, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:022352
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2025006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.e-jei.org/upload/jei-2025006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11130/jei.2025006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:integr:022352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JEI (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desejkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.