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China’s CPTPP Accession: Economic Gains and Trade Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Hu Zhigao

    (Business School of Shantou University, Shantou Guangdong, China)

  • Zhang Jiayi

    (WMG College, Warwick University, Coventry, United Kingdom)

  • Li Jing

    (Business School of Shantou University, Shantou Guangdong, China)

Abstract

This study evaluates the economic implications of China’s potential accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Results reveal that CPTPP membership would generally boost import-export growth rates across most industries, with significant benefits for agriculture, textiles, papermaking, and minerals, whereas extraction, petrochemicals, automotive, steel, machinery, and electronics sectors gain less. The CPTPP induces trade diversion, enhancing China’s GDP and social welfare under normal conditions, but such gains diminish under trade sanctions. While joining the CPTPP improves trade terms and expands surplus in standard scenarios, sanctions could reverse these outcomes. Consequently, China should pursue CPTPP integration while proactively addressing sanctions risks to minimize adverse effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu Zhigao & Zhang Jiayi & Li Jing, 2025. "China’s CPTPP Accession: Economic Gains and Trade Risks," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 40(4), pages 543-566, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:021794
    DOI: 10.11130/jei.2025007
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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