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A Brief Empirical Note on the Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Domestic Inflation: The Case of the United States, 1965-1999




This empirical study for the period 1965-1999 finds that a higher percentage rate of increase in the price of crude oil acts to increase domestic inflation in the United States. However, whereas this impact is statistically significant, the magnitude of the impact is modest. Therefore, the monetary authority in the United States should be careful to not overreact with contractionary policies simply because oil price inflation increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Cebula , Richard J., 2000. "A Brief Empirical Note on the Impact of Crude Oil Prices on Domestic Inflation: The Case of the United States, 1965-1999," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 53(4), pages 449-454.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0230

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
    4. Paul R Masson, 1998. "Contagion; Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria," IMF Working Papers 98/142, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    7. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1989. "The Political Economy of Overvaluation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 850-855, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cebula, Richard & McGrath, Richard & Saadatmand, Yassamand & Toma, Michael, 2001. "An Empirical Note on the Impact of the Price of Imported Crude Oil on Inflation in the United Kingdom," MPRA Paper 58075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Cebula, Richard & Saadatmand, Yassaman & Piccone, Yvonne, 2002. "An Empirical Note on the Inflation Impact of the Price of Imported Crude Oil: The Case of Germany," MPRA Paper 50887, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General


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