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On the Empirics of Trade and Growth Relationship in India


  • Singh, Tarlok

    () (Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Nathan campus)


The study analyses the long run equilibrium and short run dynamic relationship among real exports, real imports and real income in India for the period 1951-52 to 1995-96. The long run relationship is examined using both the Engle-Granger (1987) two-step and the Johansen (1991) maximum-likelihood systems estimators. The short run relationship is analysed and the hypothesis of Granger non-causality is tested by estimating a dynamic VAR model. A more recent estimator based on level VAR developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is also used to test the hypothesis of Granger non-causality. The study does not find any evidence for the presence of cointegrating relationship among the variables. The study supports the presence of a short run dynamic relationship with unidirectional Granger causality flowing from imports to exports and from exports to income.

Suggested Citation

  • Singh, Tarlok, 2002. "On the Empirics of Trade and Growth Relationship in India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 55(2), pages 177-192.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ecoint:0188

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models


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