IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/eaerev/0431.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Rhee, Hongjai

    (Ajou University)

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions across industries worldwide. This paper aims to analyze the economic impact of the pandemic on the sales performance of basic commercial areas in Seoul, Korea. Using a regression analysis with credit card transaction data, the study underscores the critical nature of determining the reference point for comparison. Firstly, in comparison to the revenue in the same quarter before the onset of the pandemic, a significant decrease in revenue was observed across most categories during the pandemic periods. Secondly, when compared to the counterfactual revenue in the same period, extrapolated by an exponential smoothing forecasting, the overall revenue decrease during the periods was less pronounced, except in a few categories. Interestingly, certain categories appeared to witness marginal increases in sales after the pandemic. The paper discusses some policy implications of these findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Rhee, Hongjai, 2024. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Covid-19 through a Counterfactual Analysis," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 28(1), pages 69-94, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0431
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2024.28.1.431?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Counterfactual Analysis; Intervention Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: JE Lee (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/kieppkr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.