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Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: “Preference Ordering” Using CGE Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ji, Xianbai

    (Nanyang Technological University, The Australian National University)

  • Rana, Pradumna B.

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Chia, Wai-Mun

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Li, Changtai

    (Nanyang Technological University)

Abstract

Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his “America First” trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct “preference ordering” for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a “multi-track, multi-stage” approach to trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ji, Xianbai & Rana, Pradumna B. & Chia, Wai-Mun & Li, Changtai, 2018. "Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: “Preference Ordering” Using CGE Analysis," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 22(2), pages 177-215, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eaerev:0342
    DOI: 10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2018.22.2.342
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, Lingling & Pan, Chen & He, Jianwu & Li, Shantong, 2021. "The Impact of RCEP on Chinese Regional Economy from Global Value Chains Perspective," Conference papers 333306, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Kiki Verico, 2021. "Mega-Regionalism in Southeast Asia - Single- and Dual-Track Options for ASEAN Member States," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 3(Early Vie), pages 1-5.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post-TPP; RCEP; CPTPP; FTAAP; CGE Modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General

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