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Determinants of Türkiye’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index: Uncertainty, Trade, and Exchange Rates

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  • Barış Ülker

    (Dicle University)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of global uncertainty, foreign trade volume, and the real effective exchange rate on Türkiye’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index. It applies a partially asymmetric NARDL model to quarterly data for 2010Q1-2025Q3 period. The results show that global uncertainty is positively associated with liner shipping connectivity in both the short and long run. Import volume emerges as the dominant long run determinant of connectivity, with import contractions exerting a stronger negative effect than the positive effect generated by expansions. Export expansion affects liner shipping connectivity only over longer horizons while real appreciation provides statistically weak evidence of a positive effect on connectivity. These findings indicate Türkiye’s maritime connectivity is shaped by asymmetric and horizon dependent mechanisms beyond trade volume alone. Overall, the results suggest that liner shipping rigidity, carrier adjustment behavior, import dependence, supply chain resilience and Türkiye’s strategic transit position are important factors in explaining maritime connectivity dynamics. They also suggest that policy priorities should include stable import related cargo flows, service continuity, port efficiency and readiness for route reconfiguration within changing global liner shipping networks.

Suggested Citation

  • Barış Ülker, 2026. "Determinants of Türkiye’s Liner Shipping Connectivity Index: Uncertainty, Trade, and Exchange Rates," Business and Economics Research Journal, Bursa Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 359-376, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:buecrj:023234
    DOI: 10.20409/berj.2026.502
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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