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How Often Does the Exchange Rate Granger Cause the Stock Market in Pakistan? A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, Khalid

    (School of Finance, Qilu University of Technology, China)

  • SU, Chi-Wei

    (Department of Finance, Ocean University of China, China)

  • Khurshid, Adnan

    (Abbottabad University of Science and Technology, Abbottabad, Pakistan)

  • Rehman, Ashfaq U.

    (Department of Political Science Women University of Sawabi, Pakistan)

Abstract

his paper investigates the causal link between the stock market (SM) and the exchange rate (EXR) in Pakistan, using the bootstrap Granger causality and sub-sample rolling window estimation. The full sample Granger causality test indicates no causality between the SM and the EXR. The stability of the parameters is examined by taking into the account structural changes for individual series as well as the VAR. The full sample Granger test shows the absence of causality. The rolling window approach shows the uni-directional positive and negative relationship between the SM and the EXR. The study gives some suggestions to the government and policy makers that a well-coordinated policy implementation and execution regarding the SM and the EXR are crucial in attracting foreign investors and developing a sound financial system in the country complementary to the development of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Khalid & SU, Chi-Wei & Khurshid, Adnan & Rehman, Ashfaq U., 2018. "How Often Does the Exchange Rate Granger Cause the Stock Market in Pakistan? A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach," Asian Journal of Applied Economics/ Applied Economics Journal, Kasetsart University, Faculty of Economics, Center for Applied Economic Research, vol. 25(1), pages 65-78, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:apecjn:0020
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinyu WANG & Wensen WU & Jin ZHANG & Gheorghe HURDUZEU & Teodora Odett BREAZ & Vasile Cosmin NICULA, 2022. "How are industrial sector optimization, mitigation policies and taxes contributing to carbon neutrality? Threshold Evidence from Europe," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 187-201, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rolling Window; Bootstrap; Granger causality; Stock market; Exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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