Análisis Multisectorial Y De Cambio Estructural De La Economía Mexicana Para El Periodo 2008-2012

Resumen:Identificar cambio estructural en una economía resulta fundamental para definir el nuevo rumbo que deberán tomar los policyMakers en cualquier ámbito. Por lo tanto, en este trabajo se realiza un análisis de cambio estructural para el periodo 2008-2012 a partir de la matriz de contabilidad social construida para México para cada uno de estos años, siguiendo una metodología de multiplicadores lineales. Con este análisis se concluye que la economía mexicana no presenta grandes indicios de cambio estructural, situación corroborada a través de las relaciones interindustriales mostradas en el panorama tridimensional, aunque sí un desplazamiento de los sectores en su nivel de importancia y como impulsores de crecimiento, además, de notarse una pérdida de capacidad de generación de empleo.Abstract: The identification of structural change in an economy is essential in order to define the new direction to be taken by policymakers in any field. Therefore, in this paper, an analysis of structural change for the period of 2003-2012 has been performed, from the social accounting matrix constructed for Mexico for each of these years, following a methodology of linear multiplier. For this, a social accounting Matrix is constructed for 2012, with the last update realized by INEGI (by its acronym in Spanish), called SAMMEX-12. From this matrix and MCS-Mx03, an analysis of structural change of the Mexican economy was carried out. The methodology of linear multipliers consists in the extension of the Input-Output analysis, but resumed towards the social accounting matrix, since it allows to close the circular flow of the income, impossible situation following the traditional analysis Input-output. With a social accounting matrix, a high level of disaggregation is achieved, to the extent that existing information allows it. These models capture the total effect on each of the endogenous variables that exerts a unitary impact on an exogenous variable as follows: Where, M is the linear multipliers matrix and shows the impact generated by a unitary increase in exogenous accounts on income from endogenous accounts. As a result of this, first of all, key sectors have been determined, followed by Economic Landscape to identify intersectoral relations, and accounting multipliers are decomposed to determine the direct, indirect and induced effects of an exogenous unit impact, and finally to determine labor multipliers. Among the main results is that 2012 continues to be as key sectors to Trade and Real Estate Services. This classification confirms the Mexican economic reality, as its economy has been export-oriented and is the sector that represents higher proportion of GDP, as the strategic sector for 2012 was identified by manufacturing industries, reinforcing its importance as a leading supplier of intermediate goods and engine of the economy. The same proportion was done for drivers for the year 2003, except for Corporations for 2012 which rank as driver. Finally, Mining and Electricity sectors remain independent. Similarly, it was identified that the manufacturing industries and real trade reflect the greatest economic impact to interact with all productive sectors. However, the strongest intersectoral relationship is given with manufacturing and educational services. This analysis determined that for the period 2003-2012 a strong structural change was not detected, despite the global crisis presented in that period. A situation arose through the inter-relationships shown in economic landscape, although there has been a shift of sectors on their level of importance as growth drivers, also noted a loss of capacity to generate employment. Moreover, with regards to multiplier decomposition in 2003, it was detected that the sectors had the greatest overall effect on the economy which were legislative activities, electric energy and building, while the year 2012 was detected with a greater total effect to legislative activities, educational services and health services. Instead, the greatest direct effect for 2003 and 2012 was presented by electrical energy. For both years, the highest indirect effect was presented by electric energy and the largest induced effect was presented by the Educational Services. However, the sectors with the greatest change from one year to another were health services, educational Services, transportation and warehousing. Finally, although the sectors with the greatest capacity to generate employment for that period remain stable, the sector with the largest capacity was the primary sector, followed by other services and supportive business services. The sector with the lower capacity to generate jobs was the Mining sector, Corporate and Real Estate Services. It was noted that for 2012 even though the same structure was like that of 2003, the employment generation capacity decreased significantly. However, the fact that trade and real estate services were classified as key, explains why the Mexican economy cannot grow steadily like other economies in the world. A sector-based economy exploiting raw materials and processed through a developed industry as a manufacturing industries, take over other sectors and would be great for other input suppliers.