Una Lectura Espacial De La Competición Política En Las Elecciones Autonómicas De 2015 En Cataluña: Partidos Y Liderazgo

Resumen:Las elecciones autonómicas en Cataluña de 2015 estuvieron marcadas por el proceso de independencia. Estos comicios supusieron importantes cambios para el sistema político y se desarrollaron en un espacio bidimensional, definido por el cleavage ideológico y el identitario. Entorno a estos ejes y a la relación más o menos desigual entre ambos, se posicionaron los partidos políticos, los líderes y los electores; articulándose en consecuencia, el espacio de competición política. Bajo el prisma que nos ofrecen los modelos espaciales de voto analizamos en este trabajo estas cuestiones, así como el impacto que sobre la composición del voto han podido tener.Abstract: The regional elections held in Catalonia on September 27, 2015 were clearly marked by the independence process, which has meant important changes for the political system. These elections have been developed in a space of two-dimensional political competition, defined by two cleavages: ideological and identity. Revolve around these two axes and the unequal relationship established between them, the political parties that take part in these elections have been positioned, the political leaders have been placed and the voters have been self-positioned. On this basis, the aim of this paper is to analyse the relationships built around these spaces by the voters with political parties, with their leaders; to finish determining the influence that these positions have had on the formation of the vote to the different political parties;solating these effects, and excluding intentionally from the analysis other classic important variables in the explanation of vote. Through a first descriptive analysis, we have addressed the spatial analysis of competition, identifying through both axes what has been the positioning of parties, leaders and voters. This first analysis shows a clear prevalence of the importance of the identity axis in the definition of political competition, moderately differentiated depending on the parties and leaderships, which is confirmed by an Multiple Correspondence Analysis. It also outlines the competitive advantage that the leaders would have played in this process in order to shape the strategies of their parties, becoming a enablers of the positioning of the voters, as well as sometimes building "shared leadership" that would allow the maximization of the competitive advantage. Subsequently, and from the perspective spatial models of voting, more specifically, proximity models, the calculation and analysis of voters' euclidean distances with respect to their parties and leaders is addressed. This analysis allows us to strengthen the first descriptive findings of the positioning in both axes, establishing the existence of a greater clarity of positioning of voters in the identity axis, where the levels of concurrence of distances are larger than in the ideological axis, both in the case of the parties as in the case of the leaders. Finally, a multivariate analysis allows us to identifying, through the adjustment of eighteen logistic regression models, the weight and effect that the distances to the different parties and leaderships have had on the voting behavior of each of the parties that obtained parliamentary representation. The results of these models, lead to the following fundamental conclusions: a) the effect that the identity issue has had on the structuring of the electoral competition of the different parties and leaders in these elections and the difference of this impact depending on the political formation; b) the importance that leaderships would have had as enablers of the positioning of voters around the cleavages of competition, allowing in many cases to define voting behavior, with a higher impact than the weight of the party brand; and finally, c) the hard confrontation existing, in ideological terms, but fundamentally identity, between the two main actors of the independence process, JxSí and the PP as a reflection of the position of the central government.