El fin de una etapa en Andalucía. Una explicación del resultado electoral de las elecciones autonómicas de 2018

Resumen:Los resultados de las elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía del 2 de diciembre de 2018 trajeron el fin de un ciclo en la Comunidad. El fin del PSOE en la Junta vino, pese a su victoria en los comicios, de su descenso a un mínimo histórico y de la suma de los tres partidos de la oposición (Partido Popular, Ciudadanos y VOX). Este artículo pretende trazar un primer análisis para explicar las causas, empezando por el desgaste en la gestión, una campaña electoral poco éxitosa, el clima de opinión surgido de los sondeos preelectorales y una candidata que no era bien acogida por sus propios votantes.Abstract: The 2018 regional elections in Andalusia have meant the end of almost four decades in the power of the Socialist Party (PSOE-A), as well as the formation of the first center-right government (between the conservative party, Partido Popular, and the liberal one, Ciudadanos) with the support of the radical right-wing populist party, VOX, being the first time that a party of this nature has access to a regional parliament in Spain. This article focuses on analyzing these elections, from the perspective of the retreat of the Social Democratic Party, PSOE, hegemonic in the Andalusian party system, although some reflections of the other parties have been taken into consideration. After more than thirty-five years, the government has been dominated by the socialist party of the social democratic court, PSOE-A, with coalitions or support by parties to its left (Izquierda Unida) or right (the regional party, Partido Andalucista, or liberal one, Ciudadanos). That is due to its behavior as a catch-all party, progressive liberal principles, and its implantation in rural and small areas. Moreover, the partisan identification that the electorate has established with the trajectory of this party in the regional government as well as the ideological adaptation of the space where most of the Andalusian electorate have been located, have been the focus of the study of the research that has analyzed its central role of the party system. However, the institutional decay after its long time in the Government, the corruption cases that have occurred in the last decade and the deterioration of the public image of its candidate cause this party to achieve unexpected results, despite the fact that pre-election polls still predicted more representation that would allow them to continue governing. With three hypotheses as a starting point to explain the decline of the PSOE-A (differential abstention in the electorate of lefts, a lower participation in rural areas and the rejection of the leadership of his candidate, Susana Díaz, among a part of his electorate) , our objective is to observe if there were partisan realignments to be able to consider that these elections as transformers of the electoral behavior in Andalusia. On the basis of the post-election survey of the Spanish Center for Sociological Research, and through logistic regressions and average marginal effects (AME), we have made a model to explain voting in these elections. We have introduced independent and control sociodemographic variables (age, sex, size of the municipality, education or unemployed people), political-ideological variables (left-right position on ideological axis, exposure to pre-election polls, election campaign monitoring, etc.) and candidates leadership evaluations. However, the absence of evaluation variables of government management prevents conclusions about the effects of government attrition, but for this, we have inferred the assessment of the incumbent, Susana Díaz, as an indirect variable of evaluation of government managing. The results allow us to assert, firstly, the demobilization campaign in the left center people, especially among the PSOE-A voters, so that there was greater differential abstention than among the conservative voters, thanks to the existing competition between the Partido Popular and Ciudadanos and the possibility of success of VOX, which stressed its electorate by promoting their activation and electoral participation. We have also observed greater abstention among voters from small and rural environments, historically the PSOE-A electoral basis, where it still stands reasonably well, despite its decline in these areas. In addition, it shows effects on the leadership of their candidate, Susana Díaz, which generates a significant rejection among their electors (more than 20% of their voters in the previous election, of 2015, suspend the leader). Therefore, we have perceived that the coalition to the left of the PSOE-A, between Podemos and Izquierda Unida so-called Adelante Andalucía, has generated rejection among its own electorate, so, nor has it managed to maintain the voters of both formations in 2015, nor has it succeeded in attracting the discontented electorate of the PSOE, greatly increased abstention. Regarding the electoral success of VOX, it draws especially on voters who previously voted for Partido Popular and Ciudadanos; nevertheless, it does not follow the patterns of the rest of populist parties of radical right in Europe, since the effects of the immigration variable were not significant. However, it does show empirical evidence of how the ideological variable (those voters who were self-located more to the right axis) changed their party, as well as their preference for competences devolution to the central State, displaying the effects of the independence process in Catalonia. In spite of this, and joining our analysis object, we do not perceive empirical evidence, firstly, that VOX was able to capture the dissatisfied electorate of the PSOE, nor thus his traditional voters (manual workers, blue / white-collars, whether qualified or unskilled); but neither has it changed the attitudes of its voters on the model of State organization, ruling out the possibility that debate over Catalan independence has affected the vote of the PSOE-A. In summary, we believe that these elections have not constituted major electoral realignments, as they did in the previous elections in 2015. On the one hand, these elections are the result of a broad demobilization of the left bloc, along with the high mobilization of the conservative voters. The result show that VOX support is more temporary than permanent, due to the low fidelity of these voters. On the other hand, they have established the tendencies of the previous elections, with the stabilization of the electoral bases of Podemos (in coalition with left party, Izquierda Unida, in Adelante Andalucía) and Ciudadanos. In that sense, we have not appreciated a clear misalignment of the electorates, as not we can appreciate this elections as critical as Key (1955; 1959) considered. These elections have meant the end of a political cycle in Andalusia due to a sum of multiple causes (appearance of a new party, a strong demobilization of left-wing voters ...), at a time when at the national level, the arrival of a new President of the PSOE and tensions with a Catalan independence minority (support of his parliamentary majority).