Productividad y estructura sectorial: Elementos determinantes de las disparidades económicas regionales en España

RESUMEN: Las pretensiones del presente estudio son, por un lado, revisar y actualizar la evolución de las disparidades económicas regionales en el periodo 1980-2008, a partir de la descomposición del VABpc en productividad aparente del trabajo, empleos por habitantes, productividad aparente del capital y capitalización del empleo, con el fin de identificar sus posibles causas; por otro lado, examinar la influencia de la reestructuración de los sectores productivos y la productividad sectorial de las regiones en la evolución de las desigualdades económicas regionales; y finalmente, analizar el impacto que la capitalización del empleo ha ejercido en la eficiencia productiva y en el nivel de desarrollo económico de las comunidades autónomas españolas. Para tal fin, se ha utilizado fundamentalmente la base de datos BD.MORES. La metodología aplicada se ha basado en el análisis de convergencia (sigma, beta y gamma), índice de Theil, descomposición de la varianza, índice de desigualdad y un análisis econométrico. Se concluye que la disminución de las desigualdades en estructura productiva y productividad sectorial corregida han sido factores claves en el proceso convergente en productividad aparente del empleo, pero no se ha trasladado hacia una intensificación de la convergencia en el nivel de desarrollo económico regional debido a la evolución divergente de los empleos por habitantes de las comunidades autónomas españolas. ABSTRACT : As in other fields of Economic Science, empirical evidence available in spatial convergence does not allow to differentiate clearly between hypotheses and alternative approaches. The conclusions obtained are related, mainly to the territorial and temporal fields analyzed, being possible the achievement of results, though sometimes conflicting ones. Accordingly, it is appropriate to revisit the issue of regional convergence, in particular, in the case of the Spanish economy. The main aims of this paper are, firstly, to review and update the evolution of regional economic disparities between 1980 and 2008, from the decomposition of GVApc apparent labor productivity, employment per inhabitant, apparent productivity of capital and capitalization of employment, in order to identify their possible causes; secondly, to examine the influence that the restructuring of the productive sectors and sectoral productivity regions have had in the evolution of regional economic disparities; and finally, to study the impact that the capitalization of employment has had on production efficiency, and through it, at the level of economic development of the Spanish autonomous communities. For this purpose, the BD.MORES database and Regional Accounts of the National Institute of Statistics (INE) have been used. The methodology is based on the analysis of convergence (sigma, beta and gamma), Theil index, variance decomposition, inequality index and the econometric analysis. From this research new contributions are deducted in the field of study of Spanish regional economy. Firstly, the results from of BD.MORES regional database, allow, on the one hand, to corroborate the results obtained with other databases used in a similar period and, on the other hand, they offer insight into a broad enough period to direct more attention to structural features than simply circumstantial ones. Secondly, they complement previous studies that have marked the outlines of research in the configuration of the regional economic map of Spanish economy. And thirdly, the decomposition of apparent labour productivity in apparent productivity of capital and capitalization of employment, which helps to explain the regional inequalities in the level of economic development, which is not usually done, but it is of the greatest interest as the results show. It is concluded that regional disparities in the level of economic development are a reality in the Spanish economy, causing a severe crystallization process, as regional mobility has hardly changed during the period analyzed. This fact has caused that the distribution of GVApc (per capita gross value added) between Spanish regions has not been progressively more homogeneous. The convergence experienced by the level of economic development in the Spanish regions is conditioned, especially from 1987, by converging impulses of the apparent employment productivity and the capitalization of employment. However, the reduction of disparities in labour productivity is being less significant in explaining interregional economic inequality in favour of the regional distribution of employment per capita. Moreover, it should be noted that regional distribution of employment capitalization is slowing down the convergent evolution of regional productivity employment. The analysis of multi-factor productivity (TPF) and its evolution reveals the existence of very intense disparities in efficiency productive Spanish regions, which undoubtedly influences the distribution of the territorial wealth generated. It is suggested that, in order to advance regional convergence process GVApc, it could be interesting that the Civil Service boost savings and the facilitating economic agents establish a more favourable socio-economic environment, investment enable private capital a cumulative process in the regions less developed, expanding its potential in production efficiency territorial, not to mention the progress of the most prosperous regions. Convergent evolution in apparent productivity of employment has been driven generally by the different economic sectors studied. However, it is necessary to note that the sector that has conditioned the above mentioned process has been especially the agriculture. The decrease in apparent productivity differences in employment has been induced, in the period 1980-1988, by the descent of the differences in production structure, and from 1989 to 1997, by the process of reducing disparities in sectoral productivities corrected after discounting the effect of changes in production structure. Having said that, as it seems that the chances of convergence labour productivity are limited by the low levels of sectoral productivity, the differences in productive structure are expected to continue promoting the convergence process. The contraction of inequalities in productive structure is due mainly to the reduction of inequalities in the agricultural sector, motivated by the transfer of human resources from agriculture to other more productive sectors. This phenomenon has been more prominent in less economically developed regions. It is confirmed that the capitalization of employment has had a positive and significant impact in all Spanish regions, albeit to varying degrees, what could explain somehow, the continuity of regional economic disparities still existing. Given that the interpretation of the convergence process is correct, the implications that this entails for the future of convergence in the level of economic development of the Spanish economy may be somehow pessimistic. Thus, one of the key elements of the convergence seems to show signs of exhaustion in the last years analyzed. Indeed, the values obtained by the convergence in sectoral productivity corrected reduce the possibilities that the process will acquire a new intensity in the future. Therefore, if the convergence production structure does not play a corrective role in economic intraregional disparities in the future, such differences may persist or even worsen, eliminating the convergence accomplishments achieved in the past. Despite the above findings, which considered with due caution, may serve to explain the process of limited GVApc regional convergence in the period 1980-2008, it is estimated that the investigation is not complete. There are still issues that have not been analyzed, or which need a more thorough analysis, through detailed sectoral studies or case-studies, region by region, which can highlight certain issues that are not obvious in more general and aggregated analysis, and explanatory causes which only appear much more clearly when the research falls into much greater disaggregated levels. It is hoped that the expansion of the period sample, the use of new data sources, different research methods and especially the elaboration of variables that bring closer the theoretical concepts can help to corroborate the validity of these conclusions in the near future.