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La necesaria recuperación del catching-up tecnológico en el modelo de crecimiento económico andaluz

  • Antonio Calvo Bernardino
  • Ana Cristina Mingorance Arnáiz
  • Begoña Barruso Castillo
  • Carmen Calderon Patier
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    Resumen: A lo largo de la última década Andalucía se ha caracterizado por vivir un intenso proceso de convergencia con la economía nacional, pese a lo cual sigue manteniendo respecto a ésta, así como respecto a la mayoría de las Comunidades Autónomas (CC.AA.), un gap elevado en términos de PIB per cápita. Potenciar el crecimiento de Andalucía y mejorar su posicionamiento exige revisar el modelo de crecimiento en el que hasta ahora se ha apoyado su economía. Para ello en el presente trabajo se analiza el patrón de crecimiento que la ha caracterizado, al tiempo que se estiman tres escenarios diferentes sobre la evolución futura de las variables demográficas, del mercado laboral, y tecnológicas, para, bajo el supuesto de que se produzcan ganancias de productividad, estimar la tasa de crecimiento de su PIB potencial. Abstract: In the last ten years Andalusia has been characterized by a great convergence path with the national economy, although it still keeps a gap in the per capita output with the Spanish Economy and the majority of its regions. We must review its growth model to promote Andalusia’s economic expansion and improve its economic position. In this article we analyze the pattern in which it has based its growth, and we estimate the growth rate of potential GDP in the future. So we estimate three different scenarios for the evolution of demographic, labour market and technologies variables, and assume that productivity gains happen.

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    Article provided by Universidades Públicas de Andalucía in its journal Revista de Estudios Regionales.

    Volume (Year): 02 (2011)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 17-44

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    Handle: RePEc:rer:articu:v:02:y:2011:p:17-44
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