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Expectativas de inflación en Costa Rica

Author

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  • Alfaro Ureña, Alonso
  • Monge Badilla, Carlos

Abstract

Como parte del proceso de transición hacia un esquema de Metas de Inflación (MI), el Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) considera relevante caracterizar de la manera más completa posible las expectativas de inflación de la población, considerando tanto las particularidades de cada pronóstico que realizan como el proceso mediante el cual cada uno de los agentes incorpora la información disponible en la formulación de su expectativa individual sobre esta variable. El presente trabajo documenta el análisis de la información sobre expectativas de inflación contenida en la Encuesta Mensual de Expectativas de Inflación y de Variación del Tipo de Cambio. Se presentan diversas hipótesis sobre la formación de las expectativas, siendo las principales: expectativas racionales y expectativas adaptativas. Los resultados muestran sesgos importantes en las expectativas, así como una ausencia de aprendizaje respecto a los errores pasados por parte de los agentes consultados.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfaro Ureña, Alonso & Monge Badilla, Carlos, 2014. "Expectativas de inflación en Costa Rica," Revista de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Ciencias Económicas, Universidad de Costa Rica, vol. 32(1), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rce:rvceco:15054
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