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Una exploración de la estabilidad de la curva de Phillips en el Perú

Author

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  • Rojas, Youel

Abstract

Se explora empíricamente si la dinámica de la inflación y sus determinantes ha cambiado en el tiempo. En particular, se presta atención a la pendiente de la curva de Phillips para extraer evidencia de si un aplanamiento de esta curva puede explicar la aparente menor sincronización entre la inflación y la medida de presiones de demanda después del 2014 y, por tanto, una ausencia de desinflación. Sobre la base de estimaciones de una curva de Phillips no lineal, se encuentra poca evidencia de un cambio en la pendiente de esta curva. El periodo de ausencia desinflación puede explicarse por choques a las expectativas de inflación, un incremento en su importancia relativa y un aumento temporal en la inercia de la inflación.

Suggested Citation

  • Rojas, Youel, 2019. "Una exploración de la estabilidad de la curva de Phillips en el Perú," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 38, pages 9-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-38-01
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    File URL: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/38/ree-38-rojas.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflación; brecha del producto; parámetros cambiantes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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